Cracks have appeared in the Hoper glacier in Nagar district of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. - web desk
By Mahmood Iqbal
Mountains may appear silent. Snow-covered peaks seem to have stood in the same places for centuries, giving humanity the impression that these natural walls will remain unchanged forever. But climate change has challenged this assumption. Across the world’s highest mountain ranges, snow and ice are melting, glaciers are retreating, permafrost is weakening, and as a result, hazards that were once considered rare are becoming an increasing cause for concern. Nepal’s devastating disaster has shaken the entire Himalayan region.
Pakistan’s northern areas are home to thousands of glaciers and glacier-fed lakes. According to official information, 3,044 glacial lakes have formed in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 33 of which have been classified as dangerous, meaning they are vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods. These figures are not merely geographical statistics; they present a picture of a potentially enormous threat.
Nepal’s devastating disaster has shaken the entire Himalayan region. On August 26, the collapse of a large glacier and rock formation near the Nepal-China border triggered a powerful torrent of floodwater, mud and debris, destroying settlements, roads, bridges and other infrastructure along its path.
According to the latest reports, in Nepal and in Tibet in China hundreds of people have died and thousands remain missing, while rescue and relief operations are underway, which are hampered by bad weather and risks of additional flash floods from lake formations uphill.
This is also a serious warning for Pakistan.
For ordinary people, it is important to understand what a glacial lake outburst flood actually is. When glaciers melt, water can accumulate along their edges, in front of them, or within them, forming lakes. Some of these lakes are held back by natural dams made of ice, soil, rocks, and glacial debris. If such a natural dam weakens, collapses, or gives way under water pressure, millions of cubic metres of water can rush downhill at tremendous speed within minutes or hours. This is known as a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF).
The destruction caused by a GLOF is different from that of an ordinary flood. Along with water, enormous rocks, boulders, ice, mud and trees can also be swept downstream. Communities living in mountain valleys have very little time to respond. An event occurring just a few kilometres away can cause severe damage to a settlement downstream.
That is why the problem of glacial lakes is not merely an environmental issue. It is also a matter of human life, the economy, infrastructure, food, energy, water and national security.
Pakistan’s northern mountainous regions are among the world’s important glaciated areas. The Hindu Kush, Himalayas and Karakoram mountain ranges are not only symbols of Pakistan’s natural beauty; they are also fundamental to the vast water system of the Indus River.
Official sources have identified more than 7,000 glaciers in Pakistan. Yet the same ice that we view as a vital water reservoir is also giving rise to new risks because of climate change. Rising temperatures accelerate glacier melt, which can increase the volume of water in some lakes and place greater pressure on natural dams.
According to the United Nations Development Program, rapid glacier melt resulting from climate change is increasing water flow into glacial lakes and raising the risk of GLOFs.
It is also important to understand one key distinction: not every glacial lake is necessarily dangerous, and glacier melting does not automatically mean that a lake will immediately burst. The level of risk depends on several factors, including the size of the lake, the structure of its natural dam, the stability of surrounding rocks, the possibility of avalanches or rockfalls, and the severity of weather conditions. This is why scientific monitoring and accurate risk classification are extremely important.
Nepal’s recent devastating incident is significant because it reminds us that mountain disasters do not always occur in the same form. Sometimes a glacial lake bursts; sometimes a large section of a glacier breaks away and rushes downhill; sometimes rocks and ice debris fall into a river; and sometimes a landslide blocks a watercourse and later causes a sudden flood.
Regarding the recent disaster in Nepal, experts have pointed to a possible connection between the massive collapse of glacier and rock formations, ice debris and the mountain instability associated with climate change. Some preliminary reports have also identified unusually warm conditions and melting snow and ice as possible contributing factors.
This means Pakistan should not focus solely on monitoring existing high-risk lakes. It must also understand the changes taking place across the entire glacial and mountain system.
Pakistan already has several important initiatives aimed at reducing these risks. Measures such as engineering structures, drainage systems, water-flow monitoring, weather stations, hydrological modelling and early warning systems are being implemented to reduce GLOF risks.
But the real test is how effective these systems are on the ground.
Suppose a sudden crack develops in the natural dam of a high-altitude glacial lake. If a monitoring system installed there detects the danger in time, the warning immediately reaches the district administration, the local community is informed, and people know how to reach predetermined safe locations, a major disaster can be mitigated.
But if, despite the warning, residents do not know where to go, which route to take, or how much time they have to evacuate, even the most advanced technology will not be able to demonstrate its full effectiveness.
Therefore, an early warning system is not simply a siren or a mobile phone message. It is a complete system that includes hazard monitoring, data analysis, timely communication, an effective response by local authorities, designated safe locations, evacuation routes and public training.
The people living in Pakistan’s northern areas understand the behaviour of these mountains and rivers far better than we do. Their local knowledge is a valuable asset. If village elders have observed changes in the behaviour of a particular valley, lake, or stream over generations, that knowledge should be combined with scientific monitoring.
It would be a major mistake to view local communities merely as potential victims. They should be made part of hazard monitoring, early warning, evacuation drills and emergency response.
Another important question is development.
Roads, hydropower projects, tourism facilities, hotels, bridges, and other infrastructure in northern Pakistan are essential for economic development. However, if these projects are constructed in vulnerable valleys, riverbeds, or potential GLOF pathways without proper environmental and geographical assessments, the very development intended to improve people’s lives could itself become a victim of future disasters.
For this reason, Glacier Risk Assessment and GLOF Hazard Mapping should be given mandatory importance before the construction of every major development project in vulnerable areas.
We often think of climate change as a problem for future generations and take comfort in believing that its worst effects are still far away. The reality is that its impacts are already before us.
Extreme heat, unusual rainfall, floods, droughts, and mountain disasters are not isolated events. In regions such as the Hindu Kush, Himalayas and Karakoram, changes will not remain confined to the mountains themselves. The rivers originating here are connected to the lives of millions – indeed, hundreds of millions – of people.
The existence of more than 3,000 glacial lakes should not be viewed merely as a reason to be frightened; it should be a reason to become better organized and prepared.
Not every one of these lakes is equally dangerous. But their sheer number tells us that Pakistan needs sustained investment, modern technology and skilled professionals to continuously monitor its glaciated regions and prepare for the risks that a changing climate may bring.
About The Author
